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New Market Study Published: Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013

New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

 
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Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/08/2013 -- BMI View: Conventional gas deposits should enable the country to boost its output and exports, with some surplus gas destined for a Sasol-operated GTL scheme. Oil volumes may depend, however, on the utilisation of oil shale deposits - an area in which the outlook is far less certain.

The main trends and developments in Uzbekistan's oil & gas sector are:

- Uzbekistan has an estimated 340bn barrels (bbl) of oil shale deposits and Uzbekneftegaz plans to establish a US$600mn joint venture (JV) project that will convert the oil shale into petroleum products. Production is due to start by 2013, with an annual capacity of 1mn tonnes of liquid hydrocarbons.
- Without early success in enhanced recovery, shale-based production and/or new field development, we believe crude oil supply - including lease condensate but excluding natural gas liquids - will decline to 51,470b/d by 2016, bringing total liquids production to 96,180b/d. However, additional gas liquids volumes - thanks to our forecast for higher gas output from Uzbekistan - should help stem a rapid fall, total liquids output steadying at about 95,840b/d in 2021.
- A gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant planned by Sasol, Petronas and Uzbekneftegaz may soon be developed if a final investment decision (FID) is made by the second half of 2013 as expected. It is estimated that the total cost of the scheme will be around US$2.74bn.
- We estimate that gas production came in at about 58.3bcm in 2011 and continued to dip lower to 57.7bcm in 2012. We expect this trend to be reversed in 2013, however, and to rise to 60.4bcm by 2016 as new fields enter production. Gas output could rise to 66.6bcm by 2021, based on current investment activities. Risk appears to be to the upside in terms of output, thanks to the combined efforts of domestic and international companies, plus infrastructure expansion and rising regional demand for Uzbek gas.

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