New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Taiwan Shipping Report Q1 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/05/2013 -- BMI has again reduced its Taiwan GDP growth estimate and forecast, respectively, for 2012 and 2013. We continue to see the local economy picking up pace as we move into 2013, but the recovery will be less vigorous than we originally hoped, for a variety of reasons. They include external factors, such as a rebalancing economy in mainland China and a slow recovery in the eurozone. The internal picture also gives us cause for concern. We are worried that investment interest in Taiwan has cooled. And while the tech industry is leading the recovery, we believe local companies are no longer as innovative as they once were, and Taiwan is beginning to fall 'behind the curve' in this respect. Add to this, a banking system in need of deregulation and reform and a political scene that doesn't seem to support further economic reforms, and the conclusion is that the island's long-term growth trend may be coming down. In fact, we have now cut back our longer-term growth projections, to an annual GDP average of 3.9% in the 2014-2011 period, compared with 4.7% previously.
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The less optimistic economic outlook will have a significant impact on port and shipping activity. We still expect an upturn in 2013 port activity levels, but this will be in the low single percentage digits. Broadly speaking, Kaohsiung, Taiwan's largest port, remains the most resilient. Keelung, the country's second largest port, will recover weakly from a difficult 2012, when we estimate it experienced percentage falls of around 8-9% in both bulk tonnage and box traffic.
On the plus side, the policy of cross-straits integration is expected to continue. Further liberalisation of relations between Taiwan and mainland China remains on the cards. In this context Taiwan's ports and shipping lines continue to position themselves to work through a series of alliances and partnerships with mainland companies over the next few years.
Headline Industry Data
- 2013 Port of Kaohsiung tonnage throughput forecast to grow by 1.5% to 124.947mn tonnes, over the mid-term we project an annual average increase of 1.6%.
- Port of Kaohsiung container throughput forecast to grow 2.7% to 10.127mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2013, over the mid-term we project an annual average 3.5% increase.
- Port of Keelung will see tonnage recovering by 1.0% in 2013 to 70.1mn tonnes, with container traffic up by 1.3% to 1.621mn TEUs.
- 2013 total trade growth forecast to recover by a strong 10.0% in real terms, compared to a drop of 1.3% in 2012.
Key Industry Trends
Big Is Still Beautiful For Yang Ming
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