Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/11/2013 -- Our current forecast calls for hydrocarbon production to continue its upward trajectory in Bolivia over the medium term; however, we are pricing in weakness toward the end of the decade. Namely, while the country's oil and gas sector has largely weathered broader concerns related to the business environment, the threat of resource nationalism remains a key risk, as does as fairly weak reserve outlook, encouraging a more tempered long-term outlook. Of the two hydrocarbons, we believe gas has a somewhat brighter future. While above-ground risks continues to weigh on our forecast to a certain extent, redevelopment of producing fields, upside potential from sites currently under appraisal, and increased investment into new exploration suggest greater growth potential. With regards to liquids, while condensate volumes from gas production presents some upside potential, we hold a more cautious view, expecting output to ease over the long term.

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We highlight the following trends and developments in Bolivia's oil and gas sector:

- Bolivia is currently planning an audit of it oil and gas reserves, with an aim toward a notable increase in official figures. An upgrade may attract new interest and boost investment into the country's upstream. However, a downgrade - similar to the one that occurred in 2011 and saw official gas reserves reduced by more than one-third - could dampen interest in the country's gas potential.
- Officials are also increasingly looking at unconventional opportunities despite a small downgrade in technically recoverable shale gas resource estimates in the EIA's most recent report on unconventional opportunities. Stated owned Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB) is reportedly holding discussions with Argentina's state owned YPF for the development shale gas.
- Notwithstanding persistent concerns regarding Bolivia's business environment, with government nationalisation in other sectors undermining the country's ability to attract foreign investment, the oil and gas sector has seen a moderate uptick in investment in recent quarters, underpinning our recent modest upward revisions to production growth. Steady progress on upstream deals with Gazprom, Total and YPF should see new funds directed toward exploration and production (E&P). Importantly, recent deals come after several licences went un-awarded after a December 2012 tender.

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