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New Report Available: Brazil Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

Fast Market Research recommends "Brazil Business Forecast Report Q1 2015" from Business Monitor International, now available


Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/19/2014 -- Core Views

- Brazil's economic recovery will falter in 2014, with real GDP growth coming in at just 0.7% in 2014. Fixed investment will remain weak in light of falling business confidence, while poor consumer confidence to constrain private consumption growth.
- We forecast a modest pick-up to 1.5% real GDP growth in 2015, but expect relatively slow private consumption growth and moderate investment will weigh on headline growth in the coming years.
- Elevated inflation will keep interest rates steady at 11.00% through end-2014, but the bank will switch its focus from reining in inflation to stimulating growth in 2015. As such, we forecast 100 basis points of rate cuts to 10.00% by end-2015.
- The widespread public protests that took place in June 2013 marked a turning point for the Brazilian electorate. Public unrest will continue flaring up intermittently until significant progress on promised reforms, including higher-quality public services and greater government transparency, begins to take shape.
- Brazil's second-round presidential election is too close to call. President Dilma Rousseff is set to face off against A?cio Neves of the Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira on October 26. The election outcome will have a significant impact on the trajectory of economic policy, with Rousseff likely to maintain the status quo while Neves would return to more orthodox economic policies.

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Major Forecast Changes

- We have downgraded our 2014 and 2015 real GDP growth forecasts to 0.7% and 1.5% respectively. Fixed investment growth will be more subdued than we initially anticipated, as an electricity price spike in Q114 saw a number of businesses delay investment plans in H114. Moreover, weak business confidence will temper gross fixed capital formation into 2015.
- We revised our nominal budget deficit forecast to 4.0% of GDP, from 3.4% previously, following significant fiscal deterioration in recent months. While we long expected the fiscal deficit to...

The Brazil Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Brazil and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Brazil's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

- Forecast the pace and stability of Brazil's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise Brazil's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Brazil, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Brazil Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Brazil economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Brazil through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Brazil Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:


- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).

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