Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/02/2013 -- Following reports of drugmarkers' non-compliance with negotiated pharmaceutical prices, which has led to the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) paying significantly more for reimbursed medicines, we expect the public backlash and political manoeuvring by opposition parties to force the government to mandate currently voluntary price discounts through legislation. The potential introduction of additional restrictive policies - on top of the implemented mark-up ceilings for wholesalers and manufacturers and the expansion of countries in the reference pricing list - will inevitably lead to the worsening of the overall business environment and attractiveness of the market.

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Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: BGN2.20bn (US$1.43bn) in 2012 to BGN2.30bn (US$1.47bn) in 2013; +4.2% in local currency terms and +2.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q113 figures.
- Healthcare: BGN5.17bn (US$3.35bn) in 2012 to BGN5.35bn (US$3.41bn) in 2013; +3.6% in local currency terms and +2.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q113 figures.

Risk/Reward Ratings: Bulgaria's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score for Q213 is unchanged from the previous quarter. This is also the case for all other countries in BMI's proprietary system that ranks pharmaceutical markets according to attractiveness to multinational drugmakers. A minor re-weighting of one of the RRR components is being implemented to improve the tool, and the adjusted scores for all markets will be published in the Q313 updates of the Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare reports. Bulgaria has an RRR score of 52 out of 100, making it the tenth most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Emerging Europe region, which covers 20 countries.

Key Trends And Developments

- In October 2012, leading Bulgarian drug producer Sopharma signed a merger agreement with local pills producer Bulgarian Rose Sevtopolis. The agreement has been submitted for approval to Bulgaria's Financial Supervision Commission. Sopharma has been seeking a merger with Bulgarian Rose and other smaller pharmaceutical firms such as Medica since 2009.
- In November 2012, negotiations between the head of the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) and drug companies appeared to have stalled, with drugmakers warning that more price reductions could lead to products being pulled out of the market. The NHIF had reportedly invited 146 drug companies to negotiate discounts on the prices of 1,784 reimbursable drugs, but were only able to secure discounts for three drugs from two companies.

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