Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/28/2013 -- BMI View: Cameroonian agriculture stands at a crossroads, with great potential balanced by intransigent bottlenecks to growth. Weather and disease are reported to have affected the quality and farmgate prices for the 2012/13 cocoa crop. However, in the longer term the deciding factor in the industry's future will be whether infrastructure can be upgraded sufficiently to prevent spoilage and poor processing techniques from diminishing the value and saleability of the country's cocoa beans. The improvements in the coffee industry, where production has rebounded thanks to higher-yielding trees coming on stream and better access to fertilisers, demonstrate what could be achieved in other sectors with sufficient planning and investment. However, we remain sceptical as to whether production can reach the government target of 2mn 60kg bags a year by 2015.

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Key Forecasts

- Corn production growth to 2016/17: 62.6% to 1.8mn tonnes. After two years of setbacks, we expect investment to facilitate rapid output growth that will allow Cameroon to surpass even buoyant demand growth.
- Cocoa production growth to 2016/17: 33.2% to 273,100 tonnes. Government and private sector investment will improve yields and quality, leading to increased exports.
- Sugar consumption growth to 2017: 23.2% to 306,800 tonnes. Significant increases in GDP per capita, rapid population growth and a fast expanding food and drink sector will support solid growth.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$1.26bn in 2013 (up from US$1.16bn in 2012; forecast to grow annually by 6.6% on average to 2017).
- 2013 real GDP growth: 5.2% (up from 4.8% in 2012; forecast to grow annually by 4.6% on average between 2012 and 2017).
- 2013 consumer price inflation: 2.5% year-on-year (up from 2.0% in 2012; forecast to grow annually by 2.4% on average between 2012 and 2017).

Key Revisions To Forecasts

- Coffee production forecast revised up, to 1.17mn 60kg bags by 2016/17 (compared to a previous forecast of 1.15mn 60kg bags).

Industry Developments

Healthy rates of economic growth have failed to translate into reductions in poverty, according to the latest World Bank Cameroon Economic Update report 'Reducing Poverty, Vulnerability, and Risks - Special Issue on Social Safety Nets'. Poverty rates have actually increased in the poorest areas despite growth in GDP estimated at 5.2% for 2012. This is attributed by the World Bank to the lack of social safety nets leading to chronic financial insecurity for many Cameroonians.

Raju Jan Singh, World Bank lead economist for Central Africa and coordinator of the economic updates said: 'The most recent data show that Cameroon allocates 0.2% of its GDP to social safety nets - one of the lowest percentages in Africa - while the average low-income and middle-income countries allocate percentages that are seven and 10 times higher respectively.'

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