Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/21/2015 -- Rising disposable incomes due to the increasing number of households moving into the USD10,000-plus income bracket will lead to a steady expansion of the Chinese retail sector over the next few years. Household spending is forecast to rise across all retail subsectors, with fashion and consumer electronics set to benefit particularly well from the burgeoning e - commerce sector. However, the greatest proportion of the household budget will continue to be spent on food and drink t hroughout our forecast period.

The latest China retail report provides an extensive and comprehensive forecast of various retail indicators including household spending and headline total spending across each retail subsector, household income and employment forecasts, demographic forecasts and a detailed breakdown of household and per capita spending across a large number of retail areas including food and drink, clothing and footwear, household goods and a number of other subsectors.

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Small, independent retailers are still prevalent in the Chinese countryside, but malls and department stores are now the preferred shopping venues for an increasingly urban population - forecast to reach almost 59% of the total by 2018.

A major trend is the growth in online purchasing, with China registering an increase in online retail sales of 33.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) to CNY1.1trn (USD176.1bn) in H114, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM). Alibaba's Tmall platform now lists more than 100,000 brands, including 2,000 from outside China and industry estimates put China's online apparel sales at USD100bn in 2014, a 40% rise on 2013 levels. We forecast spending on clothing & footwear to increase from USD564bn in 2015 to USD778bn in 2018, a rise of 11.3% a year on average.

However, despite the popularity of online retail, there is still plenty of opportunity for bricks-and-mortar retailers. Our forecasts show that an increasing number of households will fall into the...

The China Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's China Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese retail market.

- Target business opportunities and risks in China through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI?s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (?000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes ? US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (?000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (?000, % change)

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