Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/14/2013 -- Hong Kong's telecommunications market, particularly the mobile sector, is one of the most dynamic and mature in the Asia Pacific region. Mobile subscriber numbers have long passed the 200% penetration mark and the latest data from operators and the regulator show continued growth. There are some concerns in the mobile market, however, with the government reviewing whether to renew operators' 3G licences when they expire in 2016 or open all of them - or some of them - to tender. Fixed lines, meanwhile, continue to post declines, and broadband subscriber numbers continue to climb y-o-y, although they have posted downward turns in recent monthly data. We do not believe this is indicative of a decline as Hong Kong's fibre broadband is crucial given the territory's position as a financial hub.

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Key Data

- We have adjusted our forecasts for Hong Kong's mobile sector this quarter, following data published by the regulator. We now envisage 19.0mn mobile subscribers by end-2017, representing 250% penetration, although a portion comprises inactive prepaid subscriptions.
- The fixed broadband market continues to post declines, with data to February 2013 showing continued declines in subscriber numbers. We forecast that subscriber numbers peaked in 2012, and will decline to 2017.
- Full-year data from the regulator for broadband subscriber numbers was in line with our expectations. We forecast that there will be 2.6mn broadband subscribers by 2017.

Key Trends And Developments

Hong Kong's regulatory authorities announced the outcome of a its latest spectrum auction in May 2013, with four operators awarded spectrum in the 2.5GHz and 2.6GHz bandwidths: Genius Brand, SmartTone, China Mobile Hong Kong and CSL.

Hong Kong's telecoms operators had until April 2013 to submit their views to the regulator, OFCA, regarding the future use of 3G spectrum. The four leading operators, SmartTone, CSL, Hutchison and PCCW have issued a joint letter requesting that their 3G spectrum licences are automatically renewed when they expire, in October 2016. The government, however, is keen to auction off at least part of the spectrum in a move to promote competition in the sector.

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