Fast Market Research recommends "Indonesia Retail Report Q3 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/09/2013 -- The Indonesian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact of poor trade performance on the Indonesian economic outlook.
The report considers how to maximise returns in the Indonesian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of high large-scale portfolio outflows (should the global economy underperform BMI's already bearish expectations for 2013) on the Indonesian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Indonesian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
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Indonesian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 59% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 46%. Indonesia comes fourth (out of seven) in BMI's Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms slightly for rewards. Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 75.0% between 2013 and 2017, from US$38.62bn to US$67.59bn as the large population is tempted by certain aspects of modern retailing such as private labelling, price promotions and bulk selling. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the government's interference in hypermarket planning, which should encourage growth in the medium-sized supermarket sector and the convenience sector.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
- Following what has been perhaps the worst trade performance in the region in 2012, BMI expects Indonesia's external balance to stabilise somewhat in 2013 on the back of a moderate recovery in export growth, as reflected by our forecast for the current account deficit to fall slightly from 2.1% of GDP in 2012 to 2.0% in 2013.
- Private consumption's share of GDP in Indonesia is relatively high for its level of development, and it has been widely noted that the Indonesian consumer provides some insulation to the economy against external weaknesses. BMI expects private consumption to grow by a solid 5.5% in 2013 after expanding by 5.4% in 2012, although we note that the Indonesian consumer could eventually be hit by external factors should conditions in the global economy deteriorate further.
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