Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/11/2013 -- We forecast that Iran will see very slight economic growth in 2013, with a 0.5% GDP expansion forecast by BMI following our 2012 estimate of a 3.4% contraction. In terms of shipping, however, we forecast a continued decline in container shipping volumes at Bandar Abbas as the Iranian consumer continues to be squeezed by the massive depreciation of the rial against the US$.

Headline Industry Data

- 2013 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput forecast to decline by 7.3% before returning to growth in 2014.
- 2017 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput expected to reach 2.25mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) - not enough to match 2011 volumes.
- 2013 total trade is forecast to endure a contraction of 4.9%.

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Key Industry Trends

Government To Open 40 New Ports By March 20: The Iranian government is to inaugurate around 40 new ports across the country by the end of the current Iranian calendar year on March 20 2013, Iranian news agency ISNA reported in February, citing Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization head Ataollah Sadr. Around 60 small and multi-purpose ports throughout Iran are being established, Sadr added. Diplomat Threatens Closure Of Hormuz Strait: Iran's envoy to Iraq, Hassan Danaie-Far, has warned that Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz in response to any kind of action from the US to stop its nuclear programme, it was reported in January. One-third of the world's trade oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the US has cautioned that any attempts to close the strait would be seen as a ground for military action by the US.

Western Sanctions Hitting Maritime Safety, Iranian Official Claims: Western sanctions imposed on Iran's shipping industry will severely affect regional and international maritime safety as well as security and pollution prevention, Iran's deputy permanent representative at UN's International Maritime Organization claimed in December 2012.

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