Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/23/2014 -- Our outlook for the Italian agribusiness sector has turned more bearish, as dry conditions in Europe, high operating costs and bleak economic prospects have taken a toll on the grains, dairy and livestock sectors. Our long-held view has favoured the grains segment over rice, and we expect conditions to be particularly favourable for wheat and corn over the forecast period to 201 8 . We expect poultry and cheese to outperform, mainly bolstered by the expected economic recovery, change s in consumption habits and opportunities for expansion into export markets.

Key Forecasts

- Wheat production growth to 2017/18: -2.8% to 7.5mn tonnes. Production is expected to decline only slightly over our forecast period, a result of base effects as well as lower prices and weather concerns in 2013/14 and 2014/15. Production will recover in the last years of our forecast period as prices stay elevated by historical standards, driven by growing demand for food and biofuels.

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- Cheese consumption growth to 2018: 20.4% to 1.8mn tonnes. Per capita cheese consumption, at 28.1kg, is on a par with France and Germany and higher than in northern European countries such as Sweden and the UK. Still, we see room for additional growth over the coming years.

- P oultry production growth to 2017/18 : 10.4% to 1.4mn tonnes. Poultry is a relatively cheap meat; as such, we expect continued strong demand amid the tough economic climate.

- 2014 real GDP growth: 0.4 % year-on-year (y-o-y), compared with an estimated -1.9% in 2013.

- 2014 consumer price index: 0.9% average, slightly lower than 1.3% in 2013.

- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 5.2% y-o-y decline to US$48.7bn in 2013/14, forecast to grow on average 0.7% annually between 2012/13 and 2017/18.

Industry Developments

Syngenta announced in April 2014 that it has acquired Societa Produttori Sementi (PSB), one of Italy's oldest...

The Italy Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Italy Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Italy.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

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