Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/22/2013 -- View: We will retain our cautious view of the Lithuanian pharmaceutical market for the remainder of the year. Given that out-of-pocket payments represent a substantial proportion of total drug expenditure - and also that the government remains committed to deficit reduction - we expect low single-digit growth in the country's pharmaceutical market values. Inflation has also been trending lower, partly due to weakness in the underlying consumer demand.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: LTL1.72bn (US$640mn) in 2012 to LTL1.73bn (US$668mn) in 2013; +0.9% in local currency terms and +4.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged in relation to previous quarter.
- Healthcare: LTL7.68bn (US$2.86bn) in 2012 to LTL7.43bn (US$2.86bn) in 2013; -3.2% in local currency terms and +0.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast lower in relation to previous quarter, partly on account of lower inflation rates.

Risk/Reward Rating: Lithuania remains 14th of the 20 countries surveyed in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region in Q413. While the country offers a predictable operating climate, complete with a solid intellectual property (IP) regime, it small population will continue to be a drag on the longer-term opportunities in its pharmaceutical market. Therefore, we do not envisage much improvement in Lithuania's overall Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score over the coming quarters.

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Key Trends and Developments

- In July 2013, Canada's Valeant Pharmaceuticals International completed a full takeover of Lithuaniabased pharmaceutical company Sanitas. The move comes more than two years after Valeant signed a deal to acquire Sanitas for around LTL 1.3bn (US$500.2mn), with the delay a result of the mandatory squeeze-out offer, under which Valeant had to acquire the remaining minority interest in Sanitas. However, not all minority shareholders were prepared to sell their stake in the company, which in turn forced Valeant into the courts to find and force such shareholders into the sale.
- In May 2013, Pharmaxis appointed PharmaSwiss, a division of Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, as distributor for Bronchitol (inhaled mannitol) in Poland and ten other Eastern European countries. The PharmaSwiss agreement forms part of Pharmaxis's commercialisation strategy, which to date has seen Bronchitol made available in the UK, Germany, Austria and Denmark. Other countries for which PharmaSwiss has been appointed distributor are Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Kosovo. Bronchitol has been developed to help clear mucus, improve lung function and reduce exacerbations in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF).

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