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New Report Available: Mexico Retail Report Q2 2013

New Retailing research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research


Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/21/2013 -- BMI View: We believe that there is long-term potential for growth in the local consumer market, but flag up short-term concerns about the impact of moderating external demand on Mexico's economic outlook, which we believe will feed through to weaker consumer confidence and weigh on private consumption.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Mexican retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of sluggish US growth on the Mexican consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. We also assess the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Mexican retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

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Mexican per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a respectable 32% between 2013 and 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 15%. The country is in third place in BMI's LatAm retail risk/ reward ratings, although it underperforms slightly in the 'reward' category.

Among all retail categories, over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales expected to rise by 54.1% between 2013 and 2017, to US$3.12bn. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in President Felipe Calderon having signed a decree to amend the regulation of health supplies, which should strengthen Mexico's business environment and encourage domestic industry growth.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

- While Mexico's economic expansion still looks set to ease noticeably in the coming quarters, from an estimated 4.0% real GDP growth in 2012, BMI now believes the slowdown may be more moderate than we initially anticipated. Indeed, we are revising up our 2013 real GDP growth forecast slightly, from 3.4% to 3.6%, and maintaining our 2014 forecast of 3.8%, on the back of a moderately more optimistic US economic outlook.
- After solid 3.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in H112, private consumption slowed more rapidly than we had anticipated in Q312, to 2.2% y-o-y, as a weaker manufacturing sector and high inflation began to weigh on consumer spending. While we expect private consumption growth will begin to recover from its Q312 lows in the coming quarters, we believe it will remain a bit weaker than in H112, forecasting real growth of 3.5% in 2013.

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