Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/05/2013 -- Moldova will not witness a sudden influx of multinational drugmakers. Combined with limited public sector healthcare resources, its low per capita incomes and thus pharmaceutical spending will continue to provide few opportunities for research-based pharmaceutical manufacturers, although we note that Moldova remains committed to healthcare modernisation and European integration.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: MDL2.59bn (US$214mn) in 2012 to MDL2.74bn (US$215mn) in 2013; +5.9% in local currency terms and +0.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q213.
- Healthcare: MDL9.62bn (US$795mn) in 2012 to MDL10.36bn (US$830mn) in 2013; +7.7% in local currency terms and +2.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged from Q213.

Risk/Reward Rating: Following a minor re-weighting of one of the Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) components, Moldova still ranks second-last out of the 20 key markets surveyed in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region. We continue to view both its Risks and Rewards as significantly less favourable than the regional average, due to small and falling population numbers and similar factors, despite the country's commitment to healthcare modernisation.

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Key Trends And Developments

- Moldova continues to battle with corruption, which is also present in the healthcare sector. For example, in February 2013, Info-Prim Neo reported that Health Minister Andrei Usatyii was part of the investigation currently in place by the National Anticorruption Center (NAC) over his role in the mortgaging of the National Clinical Hospital. While the minister and the Ministry of Health claim innocence regarding the corruption allegations, if found guilty, the minister could be imprisoned for up to 10 years.

BMI Economic View: After falling into recession in H212, largely down to sluggish external demand and the devastating impact of a severe drought on the agricultural sector in the second half of the year, we expect a rebound to growth in Moldova in 2013, supported by household consumption and strong remittance inflows from abroad. However, we note that the ongoing political crisis, underlying problems in the banking sector, and a vulnerability to external shocks, all present significant downside risks to the country's economic outlook.

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