Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Peru Freight Transport Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/06/2013 -- BMI maintains its broadly positive view on Peru's freight transport sector. A growing consumer base and robust mining and infrastructure project pipelines inform our view that Peruvian growth will be among the strongest in Latin America over the medium term. Domestic demand will become an increasingly important driver of growth in the coming years, boosting imports. We expect President Ollanta Humala's administration to increase social spending over the coming years, leading to moderate nominal fiscal deficits. That said, our medium-term revenue outlook remains relatively bright on the back of rising exports and a growing consumer base.
Headline Industry Data
- We expect growth of 6.0% in total tonnage throughput at the Port of Callao, to 20.5mn tonnes.
- We predict air freight volume to increase 7.4%, to 282,000 tonnes in 2013.
- We expect rail freight carried (volume x distance) to grow 3.0%, to 1.3bn tonnes-km in 2013.
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Key Industry Trends
Passengers Up, Cargo Down For LATAM
September 2012 was a month of mixed results for LATAM. Although the airline's passenger volumes managed to report an increase of 8.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) against the two constituent airlines' previous results, cargo suffered, marking a 2.7% decline in traffic against only a 0.9% decline in capacity. The load factor for the month was 69.3%, down 1.3 points from 2011.
Callao Expansion Offers Upside Risk View Related Content
BMI notes that an expansion to APM Terminals (APMT)'s Muelle Norte container terminal at the Peruvian port of Callao offers upside risk to our box throughput outlook for the port over the medium term.
Key Risks To Outlook
Upside risks come from the fact that increased private consumption could possibly lead to greater demand for imports. We expect consumption to benefit from President Ollanta Humala's economic policies. Humala's new economic plan does not include increasing taxes on consumers. In fact, Humala will seek to reduce VAT in the coming years, supporting consumer demand.
The recent free trade agreement (FTA) agreed between Peru and Japan and the associated abolition of import tariffs on goods travelling between the two countries should increase trade flows between the two.
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