Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/16/2014 -- The Philippines is set to see growth in both oil and gas consumption, on the back of economic growth, and the government's promotion of gas use . This will be supported by rising imports rather than greater domestic output, though exploration poses upside production risks towards the tail-end of our forecast period. Infrastructure availability poses the biggest upside risk to our forecast. The need to build up its gas infrastructure considerably provides a market opportunity for the midstream segment, subject to the eradication of government roadblocks .

The main trends and developments we highlight for the Philippines' oil and gas sector are:

- Total liquids production is set to rise, with new volumes brought online by the Phase II development of the Galoc field, redevelopment of the Cadlao field and sustained output from the Malampaya gas condensate field. These underlie our forecast for the Philippines' crude oil production to rise from 23,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to hit 43,190b/d in 2018. Thereafter, without other new fields in commercial production, we expect output to fall slightly to around 29,770b/d by 2023 due to the natural rate of resource depletion. A final investment decision on the West Linapacan oil project poses a significant upside risk to our forecast. Robust GDP growth rates of about 5.02% per annum, as projected by our Country Risk team through our 10-year forecast period, back our expectations for continued growth in oil consumption to 321,890b/d in 2018 and 355,980b/d by 2023.
- We expect maintenance to see refinery utilisation rate below 60% in 2013 and 2014 but a gradual increase beyond 60% from 2015, when Petron's refinery completes its modernisation. Hence, total refined petroleum product output is forecast to rise from 164,700b/d - according to figures from the DOE - in 2012 to 175,900b/d in 2018.
- Nonetheless, domestic consumption growth will still see an increase in its refined product import requirement...

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The Philippines Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Philippines including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Philippines Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine oil and gas industry.

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