Fast Market Research

New Report Available: Portugal Business Forecast Report Q1 2013

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Portugal Business Forecast Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

 

Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/14/2013 -- Core Views

We maintain our view that the centre-right coalition government in Portugal will hold onto its mandate in the face of high public discontent and increasing unease with official austerity measures among members of the coalition. This is predicated on a strong parliamentary majority and a lack of credible alternatives for the electorate given it was the opposition Socialist Party that first requested the bailout.

The outlook for Portugal's economy remains dire with fiscal austerity measures mandated by the Troika set to keep the economy in recession for a third consecutive year in 2013. We forecast real GDP contraction of 1.9% in 2013 following a contraction equivalent to 3.4% in 2012. We maintain that net exports will be the only source of positive growth in the coming two years, but a potential shift of focus at the eurozone level in favour of growth over austerity, or looser demands from creditors, represents upside risks to our forecasts.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents

Portugal's fiscal deficit will miss the Troika targets revised back in September. We maintain our forecast for fiscal gaps equivalent to 5.3% of GDP in 2012 and 4.7% in 2013, above the targets of 5.0% and 4.5% respectively. Weaker than expected growth will undermine the government's revenue raising ability. Although the government is likely to implement further spending cuts, we continue to expect Portugal to restructure its debt in the coming years.

Forecast Changes

No major forecast changes since last quarterly report.

Risks To Outlook

Downside Risks To Growth Forecast: The biggest immediate danger for Portugal is a deepening of the sovereign debt crisis, either for its own government or in another eurozone country, which would depress domestic confidence and external demand.

About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

Browse all Country Reports research reports at Fast Market Research

You may also be interested in these related reports:

- Singapore Business Forecast Report Q1 2013
- Poland Business Forecast Report Q1 2013
- Sri Lanka Business Forecast Report Q1 2013
- Russia Business Forecast Report Q1 2013
- Slovenia Business Forecast Report Q1 2013
- Slovakia Business Forecast Report Q1 2013
- Vietnam Business Forecast Report Q1 2013
- Australia Business Forecast Report Q1 2013
- Iraq Business Forecast Report Q1 2013
- Latvia Business Forecast Report Q1 2013