Fast Market Research recommends "Saudi Arabia Business Forecast Report Q1 2015" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/11/2014 -- Core Views
- Continued heavy spending on the part of the government indicates its ongoing concerns about the need to shore up its key bases of support, given the persistent threat of public unrest. While we maintain that large-scale protests are unlikely to occur in Saudi Arabia, large youth unemployment coupled with a lack of political liberties mean that tensions will continue to linger.
- Saudi Arabia's economic performance will remain largely insulated from the recent decline in international oil prices. We do not expect the government's expansionary fiscal policy to change significantly over the coming quarters, and public spending will continue to support both private consumption and fixed investment.
- We forecast real GDP growth of 3.6% in 2015, a slight moderation from an estimated 4.3% in 2014 due to the normalisation of domestic oil production.
- Developments in Egypt, Syria and Iran have disrupted relations between Saudi Arabia and its traditional ally, the United States. Although we expect the alliance to remain firm over the coming years, we note that Riyadh's foreign policy risks have increased, with the prospect of a US-Iran d?tente presenting a particular quandary to Saudi policymakers.
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Key Risks To Outlook
- The government's recent intensification of workforce nationalisation efforts (under a programme known as 'Saudisation') poses a downside risk to the economic outlook. We expect heightened 'Saudisation' measures to add to the costs for the private sector over the coming quarters, leading to an increase in project delays and a more difficult business environment overall.
- Recent developments in Yemen deepen the security challenges confronting Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council. While not our core scenario, we see a growing risk that Riyadh will intervene militarily in Yemen in the coming years if cross-border security conditions deteriorate further.
- A sharper-than-expected downturn in the global economy, if it...
The Saudi Arabia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Saudi Arabia and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Saudi Arabia's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).
- Forecast the pace and stability of Saudi Arabia's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise Saudi Arabia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Saudi Arabia, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Saudi Arabia Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.
How will the Saudi Arabia economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Saudi Arabia through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Saudi Arabia Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
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