Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/08/2014 -- We view Slovenia's retail sector in a positive light, with each sub-sector anticipated to grow in terms of year-on-year headline retail spending over the forecast period (2014-2018). This is largely the result of higher average household wages, with more people earning above the US$10,000 per annum threshold. However, some sub-sectors will only experience minimal growth, with some losing their share of total GDP.
Slovenia's retail sector is set to see minimal growth over the forecast period, driven by slightly higher average household wages and increased tourism, but held back by recessionary fears/measures. Increasing tobacco prices have restricted spending growth in this area over the past few years; however, lower unemployment levels and higher wages will result in increased spending, although we do highlight that alcohol sales will take a tumble over 2014-2018.
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Food & non-alcoholic drinks sales are to see the least year-on-year (y-o-y) growth over the period; however, the acquisition of a 53% stake in mass grocery retailer Mercator by Agrokor could see spending rise post-forecast period, with measures put in place over the next few years to drive sales. Slovenian pharmaceuticals companies have a particularly positive outlook, with both Krka and Lek posting good growth forecasts. As a result, health spending will rise, ramping up to 4.7% y-o-y in 2017 and 2018.
- In November 2013, it was announced that Slovenia's competition watchdog had allowed Agrokor to acquire a 53% stake in mass grocery retailer Mercator, for around EUR240mn. This is equivalent to EUR120 per share, which puts the Slovenian retailer's value at EUR452mn.
- Generic drugsmaker Krka posted impressive 9M13 net profit of EUR129mn, representing a 12% y-o-y increase from the same period in 2012.
BMI's key forecasts:
- Over 2014-2018, average household spending is forecast to increase by just under 1.0% per annum.
- Over 2014-2018, all retail sub-sectors will experience y-o-y growth. Food & non-alcoholic drinks will witness the least, with an average of 0.3% per annum; education will see the most, with an average of 2.2% per annum.
- Sports & camping equipment will witness an annual average increase of 10.0%, making it an outperformer.
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