Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/28/2013 -- BMI View: Delays to the restart of oil production from South Sudan underscore the uncertain and fragile state of the two countries' interdependent oil sectors. Our current forecasts, along with those of major agencies, assume that pending a political development production from South Sudan, volumes will flow from late 2013 onward. However, we continue to see more downside than upside risk to these assumptions. Assuming the latest disputes are resolved, we highlight that damaged fields, infrastructure and technical challenges pose downside risks to the near-term recovery of volumes. We continue to expect production to recover to pre-crisis levels, although we believe this will not take place until 2016 when output reaches 448,990 barrels per day.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Sudan and South Sudan's oil and gas sectors are:

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- Our view that border and security issues could again interrupt the flow of South Sudan''s oil to market has played out, with border disputes leading to an escalation in tensions and rhetoric that has now delayed the restart of oil output. While we continue to assume a slow return of South Sudanese oil to markets from 2013 onward, the risks remain clearly to the downside.
- Damage to production facilities and fields, a shortage of industry labour and the impact of the abrupt stoppage of production are among the challenges South Sudan will face in restarting output. However, we estimate Sudan and South Sudan will produce 203,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2013, rising to 402,000b/d in 2014.
- Although Khartoum is targeting ambitious increases in production from fields under its control, we continue to expect output to fall short of stated targets to increase production to 300,000b/d by 2017. Despite the announcement of recent upstream investment pledges totalling US$1bn and the successful issuance of new licences, upstream activity and production from fields approaching maturity makes such a figure unattainable at present.
- For South Sudan, critical to unleashing its more substantial hydrocarbons potential will be more certain export routes, upon which future upstream investment will depend. Plans for a pipeline linkage with Kenya remain under consideration and pose long-term upside risk to the country's oil sector. Indeed, recent statements that South Sudan would consider using trucks to bypass the lack of pipelines fail to account for both the country''s yawning infrastructure deficit, and the fact that such an option would be unlikely to support the export of significant volumes.

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