Fast Market Research recommends "Thailand Business Forecast Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/29/2013 -- Thailand is technically in recession with the economy having contracted for two consecutive quarters - seasonally-adjusted real GDP growth came in at a negative 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q213, following a contraction of 1.7% in Q113. Crucially, private consumption and gross fixed capital formation are also beginning to witness some signs of slowing down. We expect cooling external demand to continue to drag on the overall economy and that full-year real GDP growth will come in relatively weak at just 4.0%, compared to the Bloomberg consensus of 4.8%.
In light of the difficulties in withdrawing the rice policy without fuelling widespread unrest and losing support from voters, we see a risk that the government may choose to kick the can further down the road, resulting in a protracted delay in bringing the budget back into balance. Our forecasts for Thailand's budget deficit to narrow only gradually, before eventually balancing out by around 2017, reflect our concerns that the government is likely to face significant delays before getting its finances back in order.
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
Our view that China's economic growth will continue to deteriorate as we head into 2014, and that this will weigh on external demand across South East Asia, and in turn, Thailand's export sector, remains a key factor underpinning our cautious outlook on the Thai baht in the medium term. Nonetheless, given Thailand's robust macroeconomic fundamentals - bullish outlook for automobile exports and the country's leading position as a major exporter of rice and other agricultural produce in the region - we continue to see the country running a balanced current account going forward.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised our currency forecasts to account for the recent collapse of the Thai baht against the US dollar and to reflect our neutral outlook on the current account. We forecast the Thai baht to average THB30.70/US$ and THB31.00/US$ for 2013 and 2014, respectively.
Key Risk To Outlook
Downside Growth Risks From Deteriorating Fiscal Position: In the event of a substantial decline in rice prices over the coming months, we could see the government suffering massive losses as a result of its rice policy. This could weigh on the government's ability to finance large-scale investment projects, resulting in project delays and putting downward pressure on economic growth.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Browse all Country Reports research reports at Fast Market Research
You may also be interested in these related reports:
- Estonia Business Forecast Report Q4 2013
- Albania Business Forecast Report Q4 2013
- Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report Q4 2013
- United States Business Forecast Report Q4 2013
- Bulgaria Business Forecast Report Q4 2013
- Slovakia Business Forecast Report Q4 2013
- Chile Business Forecast Report Q4 2013
- Philippines Business Forecast Report Q4 2013
- Latvia Business Forecast Report Q4 2013
- United Arab Emirates Business Forecast Report Q4 2013
Copyright © 2005-2013 - SBWire, The Small Business Newswire - All Rights Reserved - Important Disclaimer
Contact Us: 888-4-SBWIRE (US) - 920-593-5640 (International)