Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/27/2015 -- Growing signs of internal divisions in the ruling ZANU-PF adds to existing uncertainty over the future of politics in Zimbabwe once 91-year-old President Robert Mugabe retires or dies. Against this backdrop, a worsening economic climate will put added pressure on government stability.

Political and policy uncertainty will continue to deter much-needed investment into the moribund Zimbabwean economy, while a weak harvest, depreciating South African rand, and lower commodity prices will also weigh on short-term economic activity.

The Zimbabwean economy will remain near deflationary territory over the coming quarters thanks to weak demand, a depreciating South African rand, and lower oil prices.

Major Forecast Changes:

We forecast real GDP in Zimbabwe to reach 1.1% in 2016, following a slip into recession in 2015 at -0.9%. This marks a downward revision of our earlier forecast of 2.4% and 2.8% for 2015 and 2016 respectively.

Key Risks To Outlook:

The political environment presents the most salient risk to our outlook for the Zimbabwean economy. If ZANU-PF successfully re-engages with the international community and unlocks financing, our forecasts will be rendered too pessimistic. However, if political in-fighting leads to more hard-line tendencies it could squeeze the economy further.

Get More Details on this Report and a Full Table of Contents at Zimbabwe Country Risk Report Q1 2016

Premature abandonment of the foreign currency regime would likely have a negative impact on the economy.

The weather is also a major risk. The country has seen several droughts over the last two decades which have had a devastating impact on the important agricultural sector and there is always a risk of a recurrence of poor rains.

The Zimbabwe Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Zimbabwe. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Zimbabwe's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.

Key Uses

-Forecast the pace and stability of Zimbabwe's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
-Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
-Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
-Contextualise Zimbabwe's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
-Evaluate external threats to doing business in Zimbabwe, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Zimbabwe Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Operational Risk.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Zimbabwe' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Zimbabwe through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Zimbabwe Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

-Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
-BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

-Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
-Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
-Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
-Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
-Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
-Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.

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