Tubbergen's radio show is also available as podcasts.
Grand Rapids, MI -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/24/2013 -- Financial advisor Dennis Tubbergen can usually be found helping his own clients. When he has a few free minutes he is busy writing his daily blog, his weekly newsletter Moving Markets or interviewing his next guest expert for his weekly radio show.
Tubbergen's next guest is Laurence Kotlikoff. Kotlikoff is a William Fairfield Warren Professor at Boston University and a Professor of Economics at Boston University.
Kotlikoff is the author of 14 books and has served as a consutlant to the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Harvard Institute for International Development and the Banks of Italy, Japan and England, to name a few. He has also provided expert testimony on numerous occasions to committees of Congress.
Tubbergen, who is an author, radio show host, and CEO of PLP Advisors, LLC, spends a lot of time giving his opinions on the economy in his online financial blog. On July 22, 2013 his blog was titled The Economy and Outlook - Part One.
"To understand today’s economy and how your retirement nest egg may be affected, we believe it’s important to understand four different topics: economic seasons, the money cycle, inflation and deflation," began Tubbergen. "A thorough understanding of these topics is essential for successfully preserving your retirement given the current set of economic circumstances."
Tubbergen continues the blog by saying, "We’ll begin by discussing an economic theory that we believe is important to understanding where we are today economically – we refer to the theory as the Economic Seasons Theory; however, it is more formally known as the Kondratieff Wave Theory (pronounced con-dra’-tee-eff). The theory is based on the belief that human nature is predictable."
A Russian economist by the name of Nikolai Kondratieff was appointed in the 1920s by Russian ruler Joseph Stalin to study capitalism. As an opponent of capitalism, Stalin wanted Kondratieff to conclude that capitalism was simply a misguided experiment that could not succeed long term. Instead, in his landmark work published in 1925 titled, “The Major Economic Cycles,” Kondratieff concluded that capitalist economies move in boom and bust cycles which are predictable.
For purposes of this discussion, we’ll label these sub-cycles of each economic cycle spring, summer, autumn and winter. Kondratieff and many modern day economists have tracked these economic seasons, or sub-cycles, all the way back to the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the mid to late 1700s.
Here is a brief description of each season and the characteristics of each one.
The Spring Cycle
During spring, an economy experiences a gradual increase in business and employment. Consumer confidence gradually increases. Consumer prices begin a gradual increase compared to levels seen during the previous cycle (the winter cycle). Stock prices rise and reach a peak at the end of the spring cycle. Interest rates begin to rise from historically low levels and credit gradually expands. At the beginning of the spring cycle, overall debt levels are low.
The Summer Cycle
During summer, an economy sees an increase in the money supply which leads to inflation. Gold prices reach a significant peak at the end of the summer period. Interest rates rise rapidly and peak at the end of the summer season. Stocks are under pressure and decline through the period reaching a low at the end of the summer cycle.
The Autumn Cycle
During autumn, money is plentiful and gold prices fall reaching a gold bear market low by the end of the autumn season. During autumn there is a massive stock bull market and much speculation. Financial fraud is prevalent and real estate prices rise significantly due to speculation. Debt levels are astronomical. Consumer confidence is at an all-time high due to high stock prices, high real estate prices and plentiful jobs.
The Winter Cycle
During winter, an economy experiences a crippling credit crisis and money becomes scarce. Financial institutions are in trouble. There are unprecedented bankruptcies at the personal, corporate and government levels. There is a credit crunch and interest rates rise. There is an international monetary crisis. There are pension funding problems and the price of gold and gold related equities rise.
Here is our view as to recent seasons and their timeframes:
- The most recent spring cycle occurred from 1949 to 1966.
- The most recent summer cycle occurred from 1967 to 1982.
- The most recent autumn cycle occurred from 1983 to 2000.
- The most recent winter cycle in which we currently find ourselves began in 2001.
"During an economic autumn season, debt accumulates until the system reaches its capacity for debt; then, once no more debt can be added to the system, the economic season changes from autumn to winter," concludes Tubbergen. "During the economic winter season, debt must be purged from the system: it is a painful process, as we’ll soon see."
To read the blog in its entirety go to http://www.dennistubbergen.com and select his July 22, 2013 entry.
About Dennis Tubbergen
Tubbergen’s syndicated radio show can be heard on metro Michigan stations WTKG 1230 AM and WOOD Newsradio1300 AM and 106.9 FM.
Dennis Tubbergen has been in the financial industry for over 25 years and has his corporate offices in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Tubbergen is CEO of PLP Advisors, LLC and has an online blog that can be read at www.dennistubbergen.com. To view Tubbergen’s latest Moving Markets? newsletter, go to www.moving-markets.com.
The opinions expressed herein are those of the writer and not necessarily those of USA Wealth Management, LLC. This update may contain forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements as to future events that involve various risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause actual events or results to differ materially from those that were forecasted. Therefore, no forecast should be construed as a guarantee. Prior to making any investment decision, individuals should consult a professional to determine the risks, costs, benefits and fees associated with a particular investment. Information obtained from third party resources is believed to be reliable but the accuracy cannot be guaranteed.