New Country Reports market report from Business Monitor International: "Nigeria Business Forecast Report Q2 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/04/2013 -- Core Views
Governance is improving along several fronts, with serious reformers in President Goodluck Jonathan's administration leading to improved management of oil funds and the prioritisation of capital spending. However, entrenched interests will keep progress slow and security concerns may derail some reforms.
Growth will be below trend in 2013 due to the ongoing effects of the floods, global macroeconomic headwinds, disruptive violence in some northern states, and an uptick in oil theft which may hamper crude production.
Major Forecast Changes
We have downwardly adjusted our real GDP forecasts for 2013 due to our reassessment of the risks described above, and we now expect the economy to expand by 6.8%, compared with our previous projection of 7.1%.
Incorporating new data provided by the Central Bank of Nigeria and based on our expectation for an uptick in imports, we have also downgraded our estimates for the current account surplus in 2013, from 7.5% of GDP to 7.2%.
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Key Risks To Outlook
The volatility in the price of oil poses a significant risk to export revenues and government receipts. A significant deterioration in the economies of Europe, the US, or other major markets could see the price again head lower, with negative implications for Nigeria's economy.
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