Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/21/2013 -- The performance of the export sector, and the wider economy, will depend on the success of the government's efforts to address security risks on a number of fronts. Our core scenario is that, while headwinds will persist, growth will pick up slightly in 2013 compared to 2012.

Economic and social disparities between the northern and southern states have yet to show signs of closing, although there has been a recent increase in cooperation between northern communities and federal security forces to fight extremism.

Major Forecast Changes

We have made a slight downward adjustment to our current account forecast based on revisions to the Central Bank of Nigeria's historical data and the most recent figures released for Q113. We are projecting a surplus of 7.6% of GDP in 2013, compared to our earlier estimate of 8.4%.

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Key Risks To Outlook

The volatility of the price of oil poses a significant risk to export revenues and government receipts. A significant deterioration in the economies of Europe, the US or other major markets could see the price again head below our current projections, with negative implications for Nigeria's economy.

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