Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/23/2013 -- We continue to expect a slowdown in oil sector investment, an uncompetitive export sector, and a cooling residential real estate sector to weigh on Norwegian GDP growth in 2014-15.

The residential housing market has been a major contributor to overall real GDP growth for most of the past decade, but is set to cool over the next few years. While we have not yet seen signs of a full-blown housing crash, we will be vigilant for signs of a more pronounced correction in the coming quarters.

We believe that the newly-elected Conservative-Progress minority coalition government is unlikely to agitate for major changes in policy in the new future. We have raised the short-term political risk rating for Norway to 97.9 (from 96.7 previously) to reflect the improvement in policy continuity risk following the election.

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Major Forecast changes

We have lowered our 2013 real GDP growth estimate for Norway to 0.9% from 1.5%, owing to weak H113 data pushing down the base effect.

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