Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/23/2014 -- Efforts to slow the decline rate of Norway's oil output are beginning to pay off, with the country registering a drop of 5. 1 % in 2013 over 2012. Despite this being less than previous years, Norway still registered its 12th consecutive year of oil decline. The gas outlook offers more stability with production expected to stabilise at over 100bn cubic metres (bcm) a year over the forecast. The country's excellent operating environment, combined with strong prospectivity in both mature and frontier basin areas are sustaining interest in the hydrocarbon sector. This is expected to drive a return to oil production growth by 2019. However, we note that growing industry costs, combined with limited incentives to develop marginal fields and improve recovery rates, could hinder investment and production growth over our forecast .
The main trends and developments we highlight in Norway's oil and gas sector are:
- Gas demand from Norway's largest European markets has fallen due to unfavourable gas-fired power generation economics and warm weather, leading Norway to produce less gas in 2013.
- Gas production for 2014 is expected to come in slightly lower than in 2013 with estimated production of 106.6bn cubic metres (bcm).
- The Norwegian government is re-evaluating fiscal changes introduced in 2013 and looking at incentives to maximise recovery rates in order to boost competitiveness of Norway's upstream. We expect the first proposals to be announced from Q4 2014.
- 2014 is expected to see record levels of capital spending in Norway with around US$36bn directed towards the upstream oil and gas sector.
- That said, oil and gas sector costs have been increasing at almost twice the rate of overall inflation. We expect to see spending significantly curbed in 2015 as greater fiscal prudence is taken with high capex projects.
- The Johan Sverdrup field has been delayed by up to one year. With FID expected in 2015, we now forecast first production for late 2019.
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The Norway Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Norway including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Norway Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Norwegian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Norway to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Norwegian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Norwegian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Norway.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.
Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
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