Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/24/2012 -- BMI View: Oil production in Norway may be in decline, but the country retains considerable upside gas potential and should continue to be a major force in European energy supply for decades to come. Discoveries of considerable size are clearly still possible in mature areas, as demonstrated by the giant Johan Sverdrup and surrounding oil finds that continue to be made. This, and fresh prospective acreage offered in the Barents, Sea should stimulate new investment from domestic and foreign operators, slow a any decline in oil output and spur on gas production within our ten-year forecast period,

The main trends and developments we highlight in Norway's oil and gas sector are:

- Norway expects its oil and gas output to remain broadly unchanged at around 220mn cubic meters (Mcm) in 2012 and over the next 'few years', the finance ministry said in its May 2012 budget update. This represents approximately 3.8mn barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) and is broadly consistent with BMI's forecasts. Official agency Statistics Norway estimates that oil and gas investment could increase by more than 15% on 2011 levels to hit NOK185bn (US$32.09bn) in 2012, rising further still to NOK204bn (US$35.39bn) in 2013. The giant Johan Sverdrup field's total resource estimates continue to rise. Data from another high-impact find by Statoil - Geitungen - shows that it could be linked to the Johan Sverdrup complex. If so, it could add another 140-270mn boe to original estimates of 2.1-2.8bn boe of recoverable resources from the field. Statoil will select a development concept by the end of 2013 and expects first oil at the end of 2018, though we forecast that production will only start to peak after 2020. Other notable discoveries made in 2012 include Statoil's King Lear play and another discovery at Wintershall's Maria prospect.
- In the short- to medium-term, oil production will continue to trend downwards. In 2012 we anticipate a sharp fall in liquids output - from 2.01mn b/d in 2011 to 1.87mn b/d - due in part to unplanned outages caused by an offshore workers' strike and a natural decline in output from aging fields. However, we expect the rate of decline to slow, with a commitment to improved oil recovery (IOR) techniques at Statoil's major fields likely to be realised. Total liquids output could fall to 1.59mn b/d in 2016, although we expect a reversal in this downward trend to have occurred by 2021 as Johan Sverdrup - where peak output could equal other giant fields such as Oseberg and Gulfaks at about 500,000b/d - comes online in 2018.
- We see oil demand rising slightly over the next few years from 244,980b/d in 2011 to 266,890b/d in 2016. Net exports are set to decline at a steady rate from 1.76mn/d in 2011 to 1.33mn b/d in 2016 and just 1.24mn b/d by 2021.

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