Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/06/2013 -- BMI View: The rebound in the Argentine agricultural sector is occurring at an important time for the global agricultural industry. Although the 2012/13 wheat crop is expected to be very low by recent standards, this is mainly due to farmers switching to soybeans and corn due to better pricing. In the wake of an extremely poor US corn and soybean crop, Argentina (along with Brazil) will play a vital role in keeping grain prices from rising further in the coming months. Although we forecast strong grain production from Argentina in 2012/13, we are generally below official forecasts due to our expectation for slightly lower yields. The country's once flagging beef sector also shows signs of improvement, as cattle herds are rebuilding due to better pasture conditions, at a time when the beef sector in the US is struggling. However, we do not believe Argentina will return to its place as one of the world's pre-eminent beef exports.

Key Trends

- Corn production growth to 2016/17: 58.1% to 33.2mn tonnes. We expect the area harvested to increase as improved prices and export opportunities arising from increasing livestock and biofuel production encourage farmers to plant corn. However, some of this growth will also be due to base effects.
- Soybean production growth to 2016/17: 33.5% to 54.1mn tonnes. This is mainly due to recent government approval for new types of genetically modified seeds, which are likely to boost yields over the medium term.
- Beef production growth to 2016/17: 27.0% to 3.3mn tonnes. The return of herd building in 2011/12 following good rains in many areas and the improvement of pastures, combined with firm beef prices, is likely to lead to improved production. Indeed, production would probably be higher if export taxes on beef, at 15%, were reduced. However, we note that much of this growth is due to base effects.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 1.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) (down from 2.8% in 2012; predicted to average 3.4% from 2012 until 2017).
- Consumer price index: 25% y-o-y in 2013 (same as 2012).

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