Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/25/2014 -- Australia is set to become a major player in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market by the end of the decade. However, we see waning investment sentiment, which will slow growth momentum. Gas production and consumption growth could be further threatened by increasing rules on the extraction of coal bed methane. The country will also have to contend with a growing reliance on oil imports as domestic crude oil production experiences weak growth while refining outlook is bleak in face of regional competition.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Australia's oil and gas sector are:
- Our forecast for gas production is 133.7bcm by 2018, up from 49.8bcm in 2013. This growth will be brought about by the development of gas fields that will come online alongside the completion of LNG projects. We expect about 75% of this gas to be exported as LNG, largely to Asian customers. By 2023, gas production is forecast to hit 145.2bcm, with LNG exports surpassing 100bcm.
- However, further expansion of liquefaction capacity - and consequently exports - could be held back. Spiralling developments costs, owing to a shortage of skilled labour and a strong Australian dollar, together with an expected loosening of the global LNG market as more supplies come online, could worsen the economics of LNG projects in Australia.
- New oil is not likely to flow fast enough to make up for declining production in the country's ageing fields. Total liquids output (excluding refinery gains) fell 15.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 411,800b/d in 2013. However, this could see a slight increase on the back of growing condensates and natural gas liquids output from 2015, as new gas projects supporting LNG developments come online and push up associated liquids production. We forecast total liquids output to rebound slightly to 439,800b/d in 2018, but slower oil and gas developments from 2018 - resulting from increasingly unfavourable economics, could see production...
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The Australia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Australia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Australia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Australia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Australian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.
Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
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