Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/24/2013 -- BMI View: Bahrain's economic growth is expected to accelerate over the next few quarters, driven by a recovery in hydrocarbon output as well as rising business activity in the non-oil economy. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.7% this year and 3.2% in 2014, from 3.4% in 2012. We have raised our outlook for household consumption slightly on the back of the planned expansion in government current spending, and now forecast growth of 6.0% this year (from 4.5% previously) and 4.0% in 2014.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

- 2013 food consumption growth = +6.6% year-on-year (y-o-y); compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017 = +7.7%
- 2013 soft drink value sales growth = +5.7% y-o-y; CAGR to 2017 = +6.8%
- 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +8.2% y-o-y; CAGR to 2017 = +9.2%

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Key Company Trends

Bahrain To Follow Region's Example: With its hot climate and strict prohibition of alcohol, Bahrain continues to boast attractive soft drinks potential for both domestic and international investment. Bahrain, much like its regional Gulf neighbours, has seen soft drinks industry sales soar over the last decade. Buoyed by impressive consumer spending power across the Gulf Cooperation Council, core carbonates continue to perform well. However, in our view, the non-carbonated segment offers greater long-term growth potential. With bottled water and functional drinks gradually gaining momentum over our forecast period to 2017, diversification beyond core carbonates is likely to shape the industry's growth trajectory going forward.

Carrefour Sells Stake In JV To MAF: In a move that comes as a bit of a surprise, Carrefour in May 2013 sold its 25% stake in its Middle East and North Africa joint venture (JV) to its partner Majid al-Futtaim (MAF) for AED2.5bn (EUR530mn). Under the agreement, MAF will retain a franchise agreement with Carrefour until 2025 so the stores will retain the popular Carrefour banner until then. MAF is now well positioned to expand operations both domestically and internationally (a promising prospect for the company).

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