Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Bulgaria Retail Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/21/2014 -- We forecast only modest growth in Bulgarian household spending to 2018. Although Bulgaria's fairly immature retail market provides plenty of room for 'catch up' growth, a lacklustre macroeconomic growth outlook and - more pertinently - serious demographic weakness impede a more positive growth forecast.
While rising household incomes will help grow the market for non-essential retail items over our current forecast period and beyond, low existing spending levels, uninspiring growth prospects by emerging market standards and a weak investment climate all contribute to Bulgaria's last place ranking in BMI's Retail Risk/ Reward Ratings for the emerging Europe region.
A key challenge facing retail investors in Bulgaria is the country's still-strong independent retail sector. This forces the organised retail sector to be highly price sensitive to compete and drives down overall spending growth prospects. The country's ageing population - with this demographic a key customer for more independent retail channels - suggests that we will not see the erosion of traditional retail in Bulgaria anytime soon. This, coupled with the obvious demographic challenge of a declining population, also informs our only modest growth outlook for the sector.
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
Key BMI Forecasts
- Total household spending in Bulgaria is forecast to increase by 11.8% to US$37bn in 2018.
- We expect household goods expenditure to witness the strongest growth over this forecast period, expanding by 22.6%, with spending on household appliances the primary driver.
- Food and beverage spending will experience the most modest growth, expanding by only 4.2%, as strong competition from the traditional retail sector limits customer numbers and keeps prices low.
- We forecast Bulgaria's population to decline by 3.9% to 6.94mn by 2018, with household numbers dropping by a very significant 6.3%. These demographic challenges will weigh very heavily on the retail sector.
- However, household incomes will grow with the number of Bulgarian households earning US$10,000 or more as a percent of the total rising from 15.6% in 2013 to 27.0% by 2018.
- With a score of just 40.4 out of 100, Bulgaria is comfortably in last place in BMI's Retail Risk/Reward Ratings for emerging Europe, with the average rating for the region being 50.4.
- In the 10 years to 2011, Bulgarian real GDP growth averaged 4.1%; over the next 10 years, we expect growth to average just 3.0%.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Browse all Retailing research reports at Fast Market Research
You may also be interested in these related reports:
- Romania Retail Report Q1 2014
- Mexico Retail Report Q1 2014
- Turkey Retail Report Q1 2014
- Croatia Retail Report Q1 2014
- Malaysia Retail Report Q1 2014
- Israel Retail Report Q1 2014
- Bahrain Retail Report Q1 2014
- Egypt Retail Report Q1 2014
- Venezuela Retail Report Q1 2014
- Slovenia Retail Report Q1 2014