Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/18/2013 -- BMI View: Croatian IT spending is estimated by BMI at around US$1.0bn in 2012, with low single-digit growth from US$1.0bn in 2011, when the IT market remained affected by the economic situation. EU entry in 2013 should provide a boost to IT investments, and although IT spending will remain constrained in H113 due to economic headwinds, an improvement is expected in the second half of the year. The market is forecast to offer areas of opportunity in 2013, particularly related to EAS software and EUfunded modernisation projects, and growth should be faster after 2014 as the economy recovers. However, with Croatia's economy struggling to lift itself from recession, pre-crisis 2008 IT spending levels are not expected to be regained until towards the end of our five-year forecast period.

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Headline Expenditure Projections

Computer hardware sales: US$531mn in 2012 to US$542n in 2013, -2% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors and strong tablet sales have constrained sales of traditional notebooks.

Software sales: US$173mn in 2012 to US$181mn in 2013, +5% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors but the SME market for EAS software represents an opportunity.

IT services sales: US$306mn in 2012 to US$319mn in 2013, +4% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors but EU entry should drive IT services spending, particularly from government.

Risk/Reward Ratings: Croatia scored 51.8out of 100.0. Croatia has risen one place to ssixth in our latest Europe RRR table, behind Russia, but ahead of Serbia, Hungary and Turkey.

Key Trends & Developments

- The government is expected to be the fastest-growing Croatian IT spending vertical over the 2013-2017 period, due largely to EU-driven modernisation projects, which could see the government's IT spend double by 2015. The combined government sector also remains the largest spender on IT products and services, unsurprising bearing in mind that the state still owns a wide range of companies across sectors like transport, telecoms, oil and gas, media and insurance.
- Communications is another of the largest IT-spending verticals in Croatia, accounting for around 25% of total ICT spending. Telecoms companies such as Vipnet are rolling out LTE mobile services, which will continue to drive IT spending on both the Capex and Opex sides. IT spending accounts typically for around 20% of total Croatian bank Capex/Opex spending. In 2013, spending on IT will be driven by support of new services and customer acquisition and key trends will include mobile banking.

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