Fast Market Research recommends "Kenya Tourism Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/26/2013 -- The Kenya Tourism Report examines the significant long-term potential being offered by the local tourism industry, but also flags up short-term concerns about the risk of renewed terrorist activity aimed at tourists, such as the grenade attack on a restaurant in Wajir in July. The country also still needs to invest heavily to improve infrastructure and service standards across the industry.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by some of the leading players in the Kenyan tourism sector (airlines and hotel chains), as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities being offered by the local market.
Tourist arrivals to Kenya stood at 564,835 for H112, up by 2.9% y-o-y. according to figures released by the Ministry of Tourism in September 2012. However, since the end of the first half of the year, there has been a renewed increase in terrorist violence aimed at tourists. Five people were injured in a double grenade attack on a restaurant in the north-eastern town of Wajir, near Kenyas's border with Somalia, on July 18. A separate attack on July 16 in Liboi, a north-eastern border town, killed three police officers. A further grenade attack in September targeting a group of children attending a Christian Sunday school in Nairobi also saw one child killed, with a further nine injured. Moreover, the March 2013 elections in Kenya will also present some uncertainty as polling day approaches.
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Against this uncertain backdrop, and with tourism demand from traditional source markets in Europe set to remain subdued over the balance of this year, due to that continent's ongoing economic difficulties, BMI maintains its forecast of a 2.0% decline in arrivals for the full year. Downside risks to this forecast would come from any new terror attacks aimed at tourists over the coming months. Conversely, the strong arrivals growth seen over H112 from emerging markets such as India could now pose some upside risks to our forecasts, should a relatively stable political situation endure.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
- BMI has extended its forecast period out to 2017. BMI now forecasts a 19% increase in tourist arrivals, to just over 2mn, and a 54% increase in tourism spending, to US$2.7bn, by end-2017.
- BMI believes that arrivals from India and other African nations will continue to grow in significance for the Kenyan tourism industry over our newly-extended forecast period to 2017.
- BMI believes that the outlook is bright for the Nairobi hotel industry, with a spate of new highend hotels set to open between now and end-2014. These include two Rezidor Hotel Group properties (one Park Inn and one Radisson Blu), the 200-room Villa Rosa Kempinski Hotel Nairobi and the 96-room Best Western Hurlingham.
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