Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Pakistan Shipping Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/13/2013 -- With the usual provisos about a volatile political and security situation, our economic outlook for Pakistan is relatively upbeat. We note that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has been easing its monetary policy stance, money supply growth has consequently accelerated, private credit is expanding, and net direct foreign investment has improved. The energy crisis has eased back a little and manufacturing output has been growing. The sluggishness of the European economies is still casting a shadow over Pakistani exports, but there are some signs of resilience. Taking all this into account, we continue to expect GDP growth of 4% in fiscal year 2012/13 (July to June), which would mark the strongest growth in six years, albeit nowhere near the mid-to-high single-digit growth rates achieved prior to the 2008 global economic crisis. For 2013/14 we are forecasting the same 4% level of expansion.
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Looking at the port sector, we expect volume growth to be positive, but with some fairly wide variations. The crisis in the eurozone, Pakistan's most important trading partner, remains a key factor. BMI calculates that the real value of total trade (imports + exports) fell by 1.7% in 2011/12, but is set to recover by 3.5% in 2012/13, and will grow further by 3.9% in 2013/14. We think regional demand from neighbouring countries using Pakistani ports as a gateway will provide a little upside potential, but in our view this will not yet be significant.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012/13 tonnage throughput at the Port of Karachi is forecast by BMI to grow by 7.3% to 40.651mn tonnes; growth to slow to 1.6% in 2013/14.
- 2012/13 container throughput growth at the Port of Karachi forecast to increase by 2.2% to 1.531mn 20- foot equivalent units (TEUs); growth in 2013/14 to rise slightly to 2.4%.
- 2012/13 tonnage throughput at the Port of Muhammad Bin Qasim forecast to grow by 5.2% to 25.277mn tonnes; growth in 2013/14 to ease to 3.0%.
- 2012/13 container throughput at the Port of Muhammad Bin Qasim forecast to grow by 4.2% to 762,744TEUs; growth in 2013/14 to rise to 5.4%.
- Pakistan's total trade forecast to see real growth of 3.5% in 2012/13, rising to 3.9% in 2013/14.
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