New Construction research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/11/2013 -- The worse-than-expected performance posted by the Polish construction sector during H113 has prompted us to revise down our forecasts for the construction sector in 2013 as well as 2014. We are currently forecasting a cumulative 9.5% y-o-y contraction in the construction industry value - in real terms - by the end of 2013, which will be followed by a modest 2.4% y-o-y growth in 2014. Over the medium term, we expect the sector to return to positive growth territory, although it will remain well below the rate witnessed in the preceding five years.
According to latest estimates from official sources, the value of Polish construction industry has contracted by as much as 17.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) during the first half of 2013. The Polish Central Statistics Office estimates that the construction sector output declined 15.1% y-o-y in Q113 alone and was followed by deeper contractions of 23.1% y-o-y and 27.5% y-o-y in April and May respectively. However, the sector bottomed out in June, when output dropped by 18.3% y-o-y and was followed by a moderate 5.2% y-o-y decline in July 2013. We believes that an uptick in public road construction and a revival in private sector investment during H213 will help the sector recover some of the losses made during the first half of 2013.
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Key developments within the sector:
Road building segment: Poland's General Directorate for National Roads and Motorways (GDDKiA) was looking to appoint a new contractor to complete the Biskupiec-Borki Wielkie section of national road No. 16, following the insolvency of previous contractor Alpine Bau, reports PMR. About 90% of the 8.2km road section is already complete, according to GDDKiA. The new contract would involve laying the final asphalt layer on 50% of the road and completing the construction of an animal crossing as well as installing traffic safety equipment and road signs.
- Rail Expansion: The EIB granted a loan of EUR235mn to PKP Polskie Linie Kolejowe (PLK) for upgrading 92.5km of an existing railway line from Warsaw to Radom. The upgrade work includes the construction of a second track between Warka and Radom, replacement of the signalling and telecoms systems as well as improvement of existing power supply system. The work is expected to be completed by end-2017. Another EUR1.65bn have been granted to PLK for supporting other railway upgrades across Poland.
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