Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Poland Retail Report Q3 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/05/2013 -- The Polish Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Poland's economic outlook of government austerity measures coupled with a tailing off of investment after the European football championships in 2012, which will drag on domestic demand and consumer spending.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Polish retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the continued deterioration in the eurozone on the Polish consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
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The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Polish retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market. Polish per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 26% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 37%. The country comes sixth (out of 10) in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, and outperforms for Risk.
Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales expected to grow by 41% throughout the forecast period, reaching US$38.72bn by 2017. BMI forecasts hypermarkets and supermarkets to outperform the rest of the MGR sector, with sales from each sub-sector expected to rise by almost 43% over the forecast period. Poland is one of the key MGR markets in the CEE region: with disposable incomes rising, more Polish consumers are converting to modern retail formats. In the competitive arena, BMI sees continuing upside potential from the senate vote in 2007 against a law that would have imposed construction restrictions on hypermarkets. The ruling has paved the way for Poland's major operators to continue unfettered with their expansion plans.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- BMI has revised down its forecast for real GDP growth from 1.9% to 1.5% in 2013; and from 3.0% to 2.7% in 2014, in light of Poland's increasingly depressed household segment. The environment for the household sector is likely to improve by mid-2013 as the eurozone crisis begins to stabilise, boosting exports and investment, and government austerity measures ease.
- Private consumption is likely to lag headline growth, remaining particularly subdued until mid-2013. Household spending growth decelerated gradually from 3.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q410 to 1.2% in Q212 despite strong headline GDP growth over the period. Retail sales data indicate that this slowdown continued into the third quarter, with average monthly retail sales growth slowing to 5.3% year-on-year from 12.9% in Q112.
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