Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/21/2013 -- We project Serbian consumer electronics spending will grow by about 8% in US dollar terms in 2013 to US$1.2bn. Macroeconomic headwinds originating from the eurozone mean consumer spending is unlikely to return to pre-2008 growth levels for many years. Serbia is one of the poorest markets in Central and Eastern Europe. Stubbornly high unemployment will constrain household spending in the short term, while elevated inflation will impinge on real purchasing power. However, economic growth, rising disposable incomes and the development of organised retail infrastructure are forecast to drive longer-term growth. Sales of flat-screen TV sets and feature-rich notebook computers will continue to benefit from falling prices and more aggressive vendor and distributor promotion. Meanwhile, smartphones provided a bright spot for retailers in 2012, accounting for around 50% of sales on leading networks in the final quarter of the year.

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- Computer Hardware Sales: US$445mn in 2012 to US$493mn in 2013; +11% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged but tablet sales should provide a growth area as prices fall.
- AV Sales: US$427mn in 2012 to US$444mn in 2013; +4% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged. Flat-screen TV sets will be the main growth driver as Serbia continues its migration to digital broadcasting.
- Handset Sales: US$271mn in 2012 to US$293mn in 2013; +8% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged, with smartphone penetration rising rapidly from current single-digit levels.

Risk/Reward Ratings

Serbia's score was 34.6 out of 100.0, which gave it an unchanged eighth place in our latest Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) table. BMI expects Serbia to climb up our RRR rankings over time due to the growth potential of its market, particularly given low but rising PC penetration.

Key Trends & Developments

- Demand for higher-end models will help support the Serbian handset market in the face of the slowing subscriber growth rate. The smartphone penetration rate is considerably below the 18% level found in Western European markets, and slightly below the CEE average, leaving plenty of room for growth. Demand for more expensive smartphones and high-end feature phones was reported by retailers to hold up fairly well, despite the economic crisis. Smartphones now account for around one-third of handsets in use on major Serbian networks.

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