Now Available: Thailand Freight Transport Report Q1 2013

Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/11/2013 -- BMI View: Moderate Freight Growth Expected in 2013

BMI expects Thailand's GDP to grow by 4.4% in 2013 (no change on our earlier projections), but we have lifted our estimate for growth in 2012, the preceding year, to 4.3% (up from 4.0% previously). In essence, we have been impressed by greater-than-expected strength in domestic consumption and investment in the second half of 2012, but although this is encouraging, we don't think it will build much-increased momentum in 2013. This is because Thailand is still facing strong headwinds from the global economy and there are concerns over domestic political risk factors.

As for industry-specific factors, the main story is that the freight sector will be broadly in line with the pace of GDP and foreign trade growth. We note, however, that in 2013 GDP will accelerate marginally, while foreign trade growth will slow down marginally. Of those two opposed trends we think the slowdown in trade will have more of an impact on ports, shipping, and airfreight activity. Road and rail freight will be more greatly influenced by the domestic economy.

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Headline Industry Data

- Gross tonnage at Laem Chabang, the country's largest port, set to rise by 6.5% to 60.94mn tonnes in 2013 (slower than the estimated 6.8% growth in 2012).
- At the Port of Bangkok, BMI now projects that tonnage growth will reach 4.1% in 2013 (down from 8.0% in 2012) to 18.936mn tonnes.
- We now expect the real value of foreign trade to grow 5.4% in 2013, with imports up by 6.4% and exports lower at 4.4%.
- 2013 air freight tonnage growth forecast at 4.9% and to average 4.4% a year to 2017.
- 2013 rail freight tonnage throughput growth forecast at 6.3% and to average 5.9% a year to 2016.

Key Industry Trends

Economic Trends Bode Well For LogisticsLogistics giant DHL and air freight operator Emirates SkyCargo are the latest global players to announce that they are increasing their exposure to Thailand's freight transport and logistics sector. DHL has announced that it will spend US$63.83mn on developing its business in Thailand over the next two-and-a-half years. The company is also seeking to expand its operations in Thailand's automotives and retail sectors, too. BMI's analysis is that the growth in domestic consumption, imports, and specific export sectors such as automobiles, textiles, and pharmaceuticals will all create strong medium-term demand for logistics in the country.

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