Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/02/2014 -- We favour the sugar sector in Turkey because of the strong growth potential of the country's confectionery industry, and our belief that large changes to the country's sugar production quotas will occur in the coming years. We see upside potential in the livestock sector, as the government's supply of discounted credit has aided growth in recent years. However, we see little growth potential for the grain, dairy and rice sectors, as we believe the country's production growth in these segments will be hampered by high domestic production and input costs. In line with these views, we believe domestic confectionery companies will outperform, as they will benefit from growing domestic sugar production capacity as well as a strong consumer story. We highlight domestic confectionary company ?lker as an example of this dynamic.

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Key Forecasts

- Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 16.9% to 18.1mn tonnes. We expect the country to remain a large importer over the medium term. The country is likely to switch plantings towards corn and soybean, as these crops face more restrictive import policies as part of the country's biotech laws.
- Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 8.5% to 2.5mn tonnes. This will be in line with strong growth in the confectionery industry as a whole as well as a positive consumer outlook.
- 2014 real GDP growth: 2.4%, down from 4.0% in 2013.
- Consumer price inflation: 8.4% average in 2014, up from 7.5% average in 2013.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to USD66.6bn in 2013/14, forecast to increase by an annual average of 3.3% between 2013/14 and 2017/18.

Key Developments

We have revised down our outlook for 2014/15 wheat production in Turkey as a result of drought in recent months. We expect output to fall by 16.7% y-o-y to 15.0mn tonnes, as the lack of rainfall will seriously impact yields. Corn...

The Turkey Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Turkey Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Turkey.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

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