Fast Market Research recommends "Peru Freight Transport Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/20/2013 -- BMI maintains its broadly positive view on Peru's freight transport sector. Despite our view for real GDP growth to slow over the medium term, significant commodity wealth, attractive investment opportunities at the sector level, and an emerging consumer story underpin our view that Peru will remain one of the most dynamic economies in Latin America in the coming years. We maintain our view that Peru's mining sector will grow steadily over our forecast period, driven primarily by investment in copper and gold mining projects. We forecast Peru's mining sector will grow an average of 4.2% a year through to 2017, reaching a value of US$23.0bn, providing ample volumes for the country's freight transport network to handle.
Nevertheless, BMI cautions that Peru's heavy reliance on commodity exports may weigh on its freight transport sector in the next few years, as a hard landing for China's economy caps prices and demand for base metals. Underdeveloped infrastructure, capacity constraints, and continued social unrest could also weigh on freight volumes going forward.
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With Chinese real GDP growth set to slow notably in the next few years, as the economy rebalances away from an investment-led growth model towards one in which private consumption plays a larger role, we believe that Peru will be hit hard through the trade and investment channels.
Headline Industry Data
- We expect growth of 4.95% in total tonnage throughput at the Port of Callao, to 20.33mn tonnes.
- We predict air freight volume to increase 6.6%, to 285,000 tonnes in 2013.
- We expect rail freight carried (volume x distance) to grow 3%, to 1.35bn tonnes-km in 2013.
Key Industry Trends
Liebherr To Deliver Three Cranes To Peruvian Port
Crane manufacturer Liebherr Container Cranes has received an order for three cranes from a Peruvian port, reports the Journal of Commerce. Liebherr will deliver one super-post-Panamax ship-to-shore crane and two rubber-tyre gantry cranes to Terminales Portuarios Euroandinos in Paita.
DP World To Invest Further US$100mn in Callao
DP World could invest up to US$100mn in expanding in 2013 in expanding its operations at the port of Callao. The port operator, which began a US$600mn investment in Callao's Muelle Sur terminal in 2010, is awaiting the result of negotiations with Ositran, Peru's transport regulator and port authority APN.
BMI Expects Peru Rail Freight To Go The Distance
BMI expects rail freight carried (volume x distance) to grow to 1.3bn tonnes-km in 2013. Over our forecast period to 2017 we believe the annual increase in freight carried will be 3%, as the country's growing mining sector boosts volumes. We maintain our view that Peru's mining sector will grow steadily over our forecast period, driven primarily by investment in copper and gold mining projects.
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