Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Peru Shipping Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/05/2013 -- Despite our view for real GDP growth to slow over the medium term, significant commodity wealth, attractive investment opportunities at the sector level and an emerging consumer story underpin our view that Peru will remain one of the most dynamic economies in Latin America in the coming years. Nevertheless, BMI cautions that Peru's heavy reliance on commodity exports will weigh on the country's shipping sector, with a potential hard landing in China having the ability to cap price and demand for base metals, leaving ports with less dry bulk volumes to handle.
Underdeveloped infrastructure, capacity constraints, declines in major mining firms' capital expenditure programmes and continued social unrest could also weigh on shipping volumes. Because of these risks, we maintain our below-consensus view on real GDP growth, and anticipate a wider current account deficit and further currency weakness over the next few years.
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Headline Industry Data:
- In 2013, we are projecting box traffic at Callao to grow by 5.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 20.3mn twentyfoot equivalent units (TEUs).
- In 2013, we expect growth of 2.8% in total tonnage throughput at Callao to 1.1mn tonnes.
Key Industry Trends
Liebherr To Deliver Three Cranes To Peruvian Port: Liebherr Container Cranes has received an order for three cranes from a Peruvian port, reports the Journal of Commerce. Liebherr will deliver one super-post-Panamax ship-to-shore crane and two rubber-tyre gantry cranes to Terminales Portuarios Euroandinos in Paita.
Matarani Doubles Capacity: Terminal Internacional del Sur (TISUR), which operates the port of Matarani, in Southern Peru, plans on investing US$260mn to almost double its handling capacity. TISUR, part of the Romero group, was granted a 30-year concession in August 1999 to build and operate the Pacific coast terminal, in Arequipa.
DP World Could Invest Further in Callao: DP World could invest up to US$100mn in expanding in 2013 in expanding its operations at the port of Callao. The port operator, which began a US$600mn investment in Callao's Muelle Sur terminal in 2010, is awaiting the result of negotiations with Ositran, Peru's transport regulator and port authority APN.
Key Risks To Outlook
A delayed rebalancing of the Chinese economy could result in a continuation of robust external demand for Peru's mining exports, as well as stronger investment inflows than we currently anticipate. These factors could bolster Peru's economy in the coming years, posing major upside risks to our real GDP growth forecasts of 5.4% for 2013 and 4.9% for 2014. However, if growth begins to slow in the latter half of 2013 - our core view - we could see counter-cyclical fiscal policy, such as increased funding for the ongoing infrastructure stimulus programme, bolstering growth and posing upside risks to our forecasts.
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