Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/13/2012 -- BMI's view that new vehicle sales in the Philippines are on course for a solid recovery in 2012 is playing out, with vehicle sales growing 6% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 98,725 units, in the first eight months of 2012 (according to estimates from the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of The Philippines). The rise was encouraged by 6.1% y-o-y growth in the country's real GDP in H112, the introduction of new car models, improved vehicle supply conditions and sustained consumer confidence.

In view of the fact that car ownership levels in the Philippines are quite low (at 11% in 2011), we see plenty of scope for the long-term growth of the market from a domestic sales perspective. We accordingly forecast vehicle sales to reach 198,100 units by the end of 2016, growing by an average of 6.6% per annum between 2013 and 2016.

We expect Toyota Motor Philippines (TMP), which controlled nearly 39% of the market in 2011, to maintain its dominance with its strong product line-up. The carmaker sells three new variants of the Vios, the turbocharger-equipped Fortuner and Hilux models, the updated Innova and Avanza models and a newly launched sports car in the country.

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In order to further heat up competition in the new vehicles market, France-based carmaker Peugeot and US-based General Motors Company (GM) are separately looking to expand their presence in the Philippines. Locally based businessman Jose Alvarez, who owns Philippines-based car company Asian Carmakers, has created a company called Eurobrands Distributors to manage the import and sale of Peugeot cars in the Philippines. Meanwhile, GM's local importer and distributor, the Covenant Car Company, is preparing for the launch of three models and three new dealerships in the country before the end of 2012.

However, these highly encouraging developments have done little to reverse BMI's pessimistic outlook for the autos production segment in the Philippines. We are concerned that persistent delays in implementing the final version of the Philippines Motor Vehicle Development Programme (MVDP) could put off potential investors from investing in the country. The delay comes at a time when local production is gradually losing out to its regional rivals owing to rising production costs and the relatively small size of the domestic market.

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