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Philippines Oil & Gas Report Q1 2014 - New Market Report

New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Philippines Oil & Gas Report Q1 2014"

 
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Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/10/2013 -- The Philippines' oil and gas outlook is a relatively positive one, marked by an expected short-term increase in both liquids and gas production, although it will still be insufficient to meet growing domestic demand. Longer-term growth will be dependent on results from ongoing and short-term exploration. Consumption is also expected to rise on the back of economic growth, and the government's promotion of gas use. However, we note that infrastructure and supply constraints could limit the country's gas demand growth in the longer term. The need to build up its gas infrastructure considerably provides a market opportunity for the midstream.

The main trends and developments we highlight for the Philippines' oil and gas sector are:

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- Total liquids production is set to rise, with new volumes brought online by the Phase II development of the Galoc field, redevelopment of the Cadlao field and sustained output from the Malampaya gas condensate field. These underlie our revised forecast for the Philippines' crude oil production to rise from 25,240 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to hit a peak of 34,200b/d in 2018. Thereafter, without other new fields in commercial production, we expect output to fall slightly to around 30,600b/d by 2022 due to the natural rate of resource depletion. A final investment decision on the West Linapacan oil project poses a significant upside risk to our forecast.
- Robust GDP growth rates of about 5.02% per annum, as projected by our Country Risk team through our 10-year forecast period, back our expectations for continued growth in oil consumption to 343,460b/d in 2017 and 376,310b/d by 2022 - a more modest average annual increase of 2.22% than our GDP projections due to expectations for slower rises in transport demand and gains in energy efficiency.
- We expect maintenance to see refinery utilisation rate below 60% in 2013 and 2014 but a gradual increase beyond 60% from 2015, when Petron's refinery completes its modernisation. Hence, total refined petroleum product output is forecast to rise from 164,700b/d - according to figures from the DOE - in 2012 to 172,470b/d in 2017.
- Nonetheless, domestic consumption growth will still see an increase in its refined product import requirement despite an increase in domestic production. Net refined product imports are expected to rise from 137,600b/d in 2012 to 171,000b/d in 2017 and 196,900b/d by 2022. To meet its refining needs, rising domestic refined products output could see its net import of crude oil and other liquids fall from an estimate of 141,700b/d in 2012 to 113,600b/d in 2017.

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