Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 04/11/2014 -- The Philippines' power sector continues to expand, with growth of between 3% and 5% expected throughout our current forecast period to 2018. Recovery following the widespread devastation of Typhoon Haiyan may hamper growth in the short term, but a range of projects in the pipeline means we see strong potential in the longer term, an outlook boosted by an increasingly positive domestic investment environment.
Typhoon Haiywan struck in November 2013 and its effects will be felt for some time to come. The disaster affected 10% of the population and caused at least 10,000 deaths. As well as the devastating human impact, the typhoon also destroyed wide swatches of the country's infrastructure, including taking down power transmission and distribution networks as well as impacting on geothermal and other power plants. The islands of Samar and Leyte were particularly affected, and a great deal of recovery work remains to be done. This recovery work is delaying a range of projects that were planned before the typhoon struck.
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Despite the delays we still expect to see growth in the longer term, with construction expected to commence throughout 2014 on a range of projects including coal fired plants and various renewable energy projects. Thanks to these projects we are forecasting that electricity generation in the Philippines will grow by 3.77% in 2014, reaching 75.21 terawatt hours (TWh). Highest growth will be seen in the renewable sector, at 9.42% growth in 2014, though renewable generation will continue to lag behind thermal, coal and gas generation. Oil-fired power stations will see their contribution to electricity generation decline slightly, by just under 0.03% in 2014, a decline we expect to continue in the next few years.
Consumption is also expected to increase throughout the forecast period at around 4% per year. We remain concerned at the Philippines' ability to match demand to supply, and as such the country's power situation will remain tenuous for the foreseeable future, Overall we do not expect the Philippines to develop a significant power supply shortfall during our 10-year forecast period, with some scope for a limited generation surplus. We note, however, that in order to avoid any shortages or an import requirement, investment commitments need to be met in full. Reducing losses will also be key, and thanks to better technology and more efficient distribution lines we expect to see an overall trend of lower transmission and distribution losses (from 10.76% in 2013 to 8.94% in 2023).
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