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Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/19/2013 -- The export-driven recovery we have anticipated in Poland since the start of the year is now in motion, and we are now increasingly posi -tive towards the country's domestic demand outlook. We expect a robust recovery in domestic demand could arrive as early as Q114, as low inflation, solid wage growth and an improving labour market bolster household purchasing power.
Poland's external position remains relatively strong. We forecast the current account deficit to narrow from 3.4% of GDP in 2012 to 2.3% by 2014 as the economic slowdown reduces import demand. However, a large stock of foreign-owned government paper and ongoing private sector deleveraging represent the two major risks to our sanguine outlook.
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We continue to expect the Civic Platform (PO)-led government to serve out its term. The government won a recent parliamentary vote of confidence, suggesting its parliamentary majority is safe for the time being. We also believe that the opposition will struggle to broaden its appeal despite the government's rising unpopularity, limiting its ability to challenge the ruling coalition.
Major Forecast changes
Due to weaker-than-expected demand in H113, we have revised our current account deficit estimate to 2.0% of GDP in 2013, from 2.5% previously. However, as cyclical rather than structural drivers are behind the smaller deficit, we expect it to widen in 2014 as economic activity accelerates.
In light of accelerating economic activity, we now expect the central bank to hike rates in 2014 by 50 basis points, most likely in the second half of the year.
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