New Country Reports market report from Business Monitor International: "Poland Business Forecast Report Q2 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 04/30/2013 -- Core Views
While we are forecasting relatively robust economic activity over the medium term, high unemployment and stagnant real wages will continue to weigh on real GDP growth.
Poland's external position remains relatively strong. We forecast the current account deficit to narrow from 4.3% of GDP in 2011 to 3.0% in 2013 as the economic slowdown reduces import demand. However, a large stock of foreign-owned government paper and ongoing private sector deleveraging represent the two major risks to our sanguine outlook.
We continue to expect the Civic Platform (PO)-led government to serve out its term. The government won a recent parliamentary vote of confidence, suggesting its parliamentary majority is safe for the time being. We also believe that the opposition will struggle to broaden its appeal despite the rising government unpopularity, limiting its ability to challenge the ruling coalition.
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Major Forecast Changes
We forecast Polish fiscal deficits of 3.0% and 2.2% of GDP in 2013 and 2014 respectively, in line with recent official revisions. Although we expect the government to loosen the fiscal reins more than it currently envisages in 2013, our above-consensus outlook for the economy should offset the effect on the budget deficit.
We have revised down our forecast for real GDP growth in 2013 from 2.6% to 1.9% and 3.7% to 3.0% in 2014 in light of Poland's increasingly depressed household segment.
Key Risks To Outlook
Although not our core scenario, we highlight the risk of Greece leaving the euro, potentially leading to a disorderly breakup of the whole common currency bloc. This would likely push Poland into recession.
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