Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/12/2014 -- Core Views

- The export-driven recovery we have anticipated in Poland is now in motion, and we are now turning increasingly positive towards the country's domestic demand outlook. We expect a robust recovery in domestic demand in 2014, as low inflation, solid wage growth and an improving labour market bolster household purchasing power.
- Poland's external position remains relatively strong and we estimate the current account deficit arrived at just 1.6% of GDP in 2013. However, a large stock of foreign-owned government paper and ongoing private sector deleveraging represent the two major risks to our sanguine outlook.
- We continue to expect the Civic Platform (PO)-led government to serve out its term. The government won a recent parliamentary vote of confidence, suggesting its parliamentary majority is safe for the time being. We also believe that the opposition will struggle to broaden its appeal despite the rising government unpopularity, limiting its ability to challenge the ruling coalition.

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Major Forecast Changes

- Due to weaker than expected inflation and the growing potential for the ECB to embark on a quantitative easing programme, we now expect the first policy rate hikes to arrive in Q115, from our previous forecast of Q414.

Key Risks To Outlook

- Although not our core scenario, we highlight the risk of Greece leaving the euro, potentially leading to a disorderly breakup of the whole common currency bloc. This would likely push Poland into recession.

The Poland Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Poland and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Poland's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

- Forecast the pace and stability of Poland's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise Poland's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Poland, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Poland Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Poland economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Poland through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Poland Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
- Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
- Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
- Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
- External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).

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