New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Poland Freight Transport Report Q4 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/24/2013 -- GDP Growth Forecast Reduced Again
In the past three months Poland's growth outlook, already somewhat muted, has deteriorated further. High unemployment and stagnant wage growth, combined with a degree of uncertainty, have undermined consumer demand. Retail sales growth dropped from an average of 6.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) during the course of 2012, to only 0.8% in Q113. With inflation falling and unemployment still high (we expect it to rise to 14.2% this year from 13.4% in December 2012), wage growth has slowed down. We expect fixed investment to remain weak, in part because capacity utilisation remains low, at 72.9% in Q213. House prices continue to fall (down by 1.8% in Q113), which has led to a sharp slump in construction sales. The only positive contribution to growth is coming from net exports, but this is relatively muted, as it largely reflects the drop in imports, rather than any strong rise in exports. In fact, export performance remains tied to the low-growth prospects of the eurozone, although we believe the situation may stabilise with a hopedfor improvement in German manufacturing in H213. Taking all these factors into account, we are now forecasting 1.2% GDP growth in 2013 (down from 1.9% previously), followed by 2.7% growth in 2014 (down from 3.0% previously).
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The outlook for the country's freight transport modes is mixed. The country's major maritime ports will see positive growth in 2013. The port of Gdansk is seeing very sharp expansion, reflecting the rapid development of its capacity, as well as its good business links. The largest global container line, Maersk Line, is its customer, and the shipping company now offers the facility as a port of call on some of its direct Asia-Europe services. Among the other freight modes, there will be falls in cargo volume for air freight, railfreight, and inland watrerways. Road haulage, on the other hand, will see modest growth.
Headline Industry Data
- 2013 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 2.4%. slower than 2012 (3.5%)
- 2013 Rail freight is forecast to contract by 4.2%, after a 7.1% fall the preceding year
- 2013 Port of Gdansk throughput is forecast to grow by a strong 32.0% faster than 2012 (6.3%)
- 2013 Road freight is forecast to grow by 0.3%, slower than 2012 (1.1%)
- 2013 Inland waterway freight is forecast to fall by 2.7% (-18.1% in 2012)
- 2013 Total real trade growth is forecast at 2.5%
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