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Poland, Norway and Nigeria Country Risk Report Q4 2015 New Report Now Available from

Market Research Reports, Inc. has announced the addition of “Poland, Norway and Nigeria Country Risk Report Q4 2015" research report to their website


Lewes, DE -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/31/2015 -- Poland's economic recovery is now in full swing as domestic demand gathers momentum. We have upgraded our growth forecasts on the back of stronger exports, as the weak euro and low oil prices stimulate demand across the German supply chain.

The sharp drop in oil prices has led to a positive adjustment in Poland's external accounts, although growing domestic demand will lead the current account deficit to widen in 2016.

There is a strong risk of a change of government as opposition party Law and Justice looks set to seize a plurality at the upcoming election, posing numerous risks for foreign investors.

Major Forecast Changes
On the back of the sharp drop in oil prices, we have upgraded our forecast for Poland's current account deficit to just 0.1% of GDP in 2015.

We have upgraded our outlook for Poland's public finances on the back of stronger than expected economic activity. We expect the fiscal deficit will finally fall under the EU's 3.0% of GDP target in 2015, although the upcoming election poses some risks to the outlook for public finances.

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A sharp slowdown in hydrocarbons sector investment amid a collapse in global oil prices will weigh on Norwegian GDP growth in 2015 and beyond.

We expect a policy response to this weaker outlook, particularly on the fiscal side. The government has the option of dipping into the country's USD850bn sovereign wealth fund, and there is a rising likelihood of tax cuts and infrastructure stimulus being introduced in the 2016 budget.

The residential housing market has been a major contributor to overall real GDP growth for most of the past decade, but is set to cool over the next few years.

We envisage broad political continuity to the next election in 2017, with the Conservative-Progress minority coalition government achieving modest progress on its reform agenda.

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We have revised our growth forecasts for Nigeria to 3.6% and 3.9% for 2015 and 2016, down from 3.9% and 4%, respectively, based on a greater consumption slowdown than we had originally forecast.

Meanwhile the long-term outlook is clouded by the difficulties of transition to a growth model that is not driven by oil, be they fiscal or political.

Delays over key appointments by President Muhammadu Buhari are worrying investors and underscore the difficulty he will face in delivering on his reform agenda promised during the election.

T he new government in Nigeria will fail to keep expenditure within the levels set by the 2015 budget. As a result, the government will devalue the naira and run an increasing budget deficit, although this will not develop into unsustainable levels of debt.

Falling domestic demand has curtailed imports but not by enough to prevent a current account deficit this year following a collapse in exports. This deficit will remain sustainable due to a relatively unattractive investment environment limiting scope for finance.

T he Central Bank of Nigeria will increase the main policy rate by 50 basis points to 13.5% by year-end, remaining hawkish over the next twelve months in response to increasing inflation spurred by a depreciating naira. The hike will be limited to 50bps due to fears over a weak growth picture.

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